REASSESSING THE INDUS WATERS TREATY: HYDROPOLITICS, CLIMATE VULNERABILITIES, AND THE 2025 SUSPENSION

Abstract

Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) that was signed in 1960 under World Bank mediation is considered one of the most successful transboundary water cooperation. The treaty has been in existence to arrange water sharing in the past sixty years between India and Pakistan amidst military conflicts, political unrests, and turnover of suspicion. Nevertheless, the modern political environment with the increasing competition in hydropower, population pressures and the rapid effects of climate change now pose concerns regarding its sustainability in the long run. The present paper unravels the IWT in the context of a contemporary perspective, focusing on the hydropolitics, the water variability resulting as a consequence of climate, and the 2025 Indian suspension of treaty participation that has never happened before. The study uses liberal institutionalism, neorealism, constructivism, transboundary water management theory and game theory based on secondary qualitative analysis to explain the change in the relevance of the treaty. The results show that despite the success of the IWT to avoid the great water conflict and introduce institutionalised predictable cooperation, it is still structurally fixed and environmentally antiqued. The paper suggests the adaptive reform agenda to be based on climate-responsive governance, enhanced data-sharing systems, and enhanced institutional arrangements to make sure the treaty is sustainable in a changing geopolitical and ecological environment.