NEW GEOPOLITICS OF THE CAUCASUS: CORRIDORS, CONNECTIVITY AND GREAT POWER COMPETITION

Abstract

The Caucasus has historically served as a frontier of imperial rivalry, separating and connecting the competing spheres of the Ottoman, Russian, and Persian empires. Following Soviet rule and the emergence of independent republics after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the region remained largely within Russia’s sphere of influence. However, the twenty-first century is witnessing a significant geopolitical and geoeconomic transformation of the Caucasus as competing powers seek greater influence over its strategic geography and connectivity potential. This paper examines the changing geopolitical role of the Caucasus through the conceptual transition from a frontier to a corridor and ultimately a crossroads. It argues that the traditional question of “who rules the Caucasus?” is increasingly being replaced by a more consequential question: “who connects through the Caucasus?” The study examines how the transition towards a multipolar world, competition over transport and energy corridors, and the growing involvement of major, middle, and smaller powers are reshaping the region. At the same time, it draws a comparative parallel between the Caucasus and the Middle East, particularly in relation to overlapping spheres of influence, unresolved territorial disputes, competing connectivity projects, external interventions, historical grievances, and shifting alliances. The paper argues that connectivity presents the Caucasus with a significant opportunity to emerge as a commercially successful crossroads of Eurasia, but the realization of this potential will depend on whether regional actors can manage geopolitical competition without allowing existing fault lines to undermine economic integration. The study therefore explores whether the Caucasus can transform its strategic geography into an engine of regional connectivity and prosperity or whether it risks becoming another arena in which geopolitical rivalry overwhelms the promise of connectivity.