TRANSITIONING PAKISTAN TO A GREEN ECONOMY BY 2030: ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES, GREEN JOBS, CLIMATE RESILIENCE, AND POLICY PATHWAYS

Abstract

Pakistan faces the interconnected challenges of low and uneven economic growth, energy insecurity, unemployment, environmental degradation, and climate vulnerability. This paper develops a research framework and methodology for constructing an evidence-based Green Economics Vision 2030 for Pakistan. The study integrates environmental, development, labour, energy, and industrial economics into a single analytical structure and proposes the Pakistan Green Economy Index (PGEI), a composite measure spanning seven dimensions: green growth, clean energy, green employment, sustainable industry, green finance, environmental sustainability, and social inclusion. A mixed-method design combining time-series and panel econometrics, a national enterprise and stakeholder survey, and scenario modelling across Business-as-Usual, Moderate Green Transition, and Accelerated Green Transition pathways is proposed to evaluate the economic, employment, and environmental implications of Pakistan's green transition through 2030. Illustrative scenario projections presented here demonstrate the analytical approach: an accelerated transition is associated with faster GDP growth, larger cumulative green-job creation, and a substantially greater reduction in emissions intensity relative to a business-as-usual trajectory, although these figures are hypothetical placeholders pending empirical estimation. The paper outlines the conceptual framework, hypotheses, data sources, econometric strategy, expected outputs, and a twenty-four-month work plan. The resulting index and policy roadmap are intended to provide policymakers, financial institutions, and industry with measurable indicators and evidence-based pathways for reconciling economic growth with environmental sustainability and climate resilience.